A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
